2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 5-8

The penultimate section of the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Top 40 features three 2022 draft picks with very different professional experiences, capped off by a veteran of the system now on the cusp of the big leagues.

2024: Full List and Index | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

8. Josh Kasevich, SS, age 23 (DOB: 1/17/2001), grade: 40, 2023: 14th

Kasevich was selected in the second round (60th overall) of the 2022 MLB Draft from Oregon State, where he was displayed a contact-oriented offensive profile. In both seasons as a starter, he hit over .300 with modest pop (.128 ISO), and walked more than he struck out (9% to 7.5%). That’s carried over into his professional career, first with Dunedin and then with Vancouver in 2023 where he posted a .284/.363/.365 in 383 plate appearances.

At least in the low minors, Kasevich has succeeded in fully translating his most significant skill, with a swing and miss rate among the lowest in the minors. That in turn enables strong plate discipline, as he walked and struck out 10% and 11% respectively. Conversely, it’s come with limited batted ball impact on that contact, and while it’s worked out to roughly league average production so far, the risk is further erosion against better quality pitching.

At shortstop, Kasevich is a solid if unspectacular defender who lacks standout tools but makes the routine plays. There’s speculation he’ll end up moved off short, but there’s nothing imminent forcing that as he moves to the upper minors and Double-A in 2024. This is significant in that while he would remain on the infield, Kasevich’s offensive profile is much more stretched at a third base landing spot given the lack of power.

If everything came together, Kasevich is a passable shortstop while hitting something like .260/.330/.350; a low-end regular who if very durable could round up and sneak to more like 3 WAR seasons. We’re skeptical of that, seeing Kasevich as more of a low variance complementary player in a bench/utility infield role. 2023 reinforced that floor which further reducing the likelihood of achieving an upside outcome driven by a special hit tool. Not seeing that in 2024 moving up to New Hampshire would essentially put a fork in that possibility.

7. Alan Roden, OF, age 24 (DOB: 12/22/1999), grade: 40+, 2023: 32nd

Roden was selected in the 3rd round of the 2022 Draft out of Creighton, where at a solid midmajor program he hit .383 with modest power across his two full seasons and in 2022 posted a video game like strikeout-to-walk ratio of 29/8. The plate discipline carried over the wood bat Cape Cod League and low-A Dunedin after signing, but the batting average backed up albeit in a modest combined sample (198 PA). That snuck him on the back of last year’s list.

Everything came together in 2023 for Roden, first at Vancouver and not missing a beat when promoted to Double-A and New Hampshire. He maintained the very strong plate discipline but twinned it with the high average from his college days for an overall .317/.431/.539 line. He showed great feel for squaring the ball up for solid contact with mostly doubles power. His power output ticked up a bit in the second half primarily thanks to a couple balls over the short fence in New Hampshire.

Corner outfielders with modest power still makes for a tough overall profile, and he’ll really have to hit to make it as a regular. We don’t think it’s out of the question he reaches a 60 hit tool and averages a slash line like .280/.360/.390. Essentially, something like a Frank Catalanotto career (adjusted for the current context). Even if he fell a little short of that, he could end up a fringe regular or a platoon bat (he hit righties significantly better).

There may even be a little upside beyond that. One thing that had us optimistic last year in reviewing college outfielders drafted in similar ranges there was a solid tail of regulars and even impact big leaguers who were clearly overlooked. Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson were both third rounders from small schools with OBP-driven profiles; Roden lacks the value beyond the bat they had, but the point is not to discount the possibility of a material upside.

6. Brandon Barriera, LHP, age 20 (DOB: 3/4/2004), grade: 45, 2023: 4th

Barriera was the 23rd overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft from high school in Florida, a 6’2” lefty who was already throwing in the low-90s with a very high spin slider and offering plenty of projection. His 2023 professional debut ended up quite abbreviated, without an opportunity to get a look at him, so a year later there’s not a ton more that’s been revealed.

Barriera made an electric debut for Dunedin at the beginning of May, but hit the injured list after four starts with elbow soreness, and was shutdown again with arm soreness after a mid-July reboot. Though he threw only 18.1 innings in low-A, on the plus side he was pretty effective in recording 23 strikeouts and allowing just 10 hits (though 12 free passes and a 4.42 ERA). He appears to be back healthy this spring, throwing an inning in the Spring Breakout prospect game and sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97. There have been reports his conditioning slipped which may have contributed.

Barriera represented one of the larger splits in our rankings, as I was more inclined to his his value as mostly flat despite 2023. Most of the expected value for first round high school pitchers comes the extreme tail where he becomes a mid-rotation or frontline starter, and in light of what he was able to do I think that ceiling is largely intact (though it’s fair to trim the odds). On the other hand, we know most of them won’t work out in the end, and inferentially missing chunks of time to injury is a bad sign. Another “pass” won’t be in the cards next year, and it’s likely next year Barriera’s expected value and ranking is either significantly higher, or significantly lower.

5. Leo Jimenez, SS, age 23 in 2024 (DOB: 5/17/2001), grade: 45, 2022: 5th

The top prospect from Panama in 2017, Jimenez was signed for $825,000 as one of four big bonuses in that IFA class. He jumped stateside right away, spending his first two summers in the GCL at 17 followed by Bluefield, holding his own with solid plate discipline and contact, though very little power production. His full season debut was put on hold with 2020 layoff.

That set-up a peculiar 2021 season with low-A Dunedin in which Jimenez’s strengths and weaknesses were magnified to absurd extreme in a half season limited by a dislocated shoulder. He made contact at an elite rate, pairing a .388 BABIP with a 21% walk rate for an absurd .517 OBP but with with no in-game power whatsoever. He added a good run in the Arizona Fall League and the Jays added him to the 40-man.

Jimenez has spent the last two seasons on option (though will be eligible for a 4th in 2025), moving up the two rungs in Vancouver and New Hampshire before a late season call to Triple-A Buffalo. Production-wise, he’s been solid with above-league marks. The walk rate levelled off to a more reasonable and representative, with good strikeouts below league average, but still occasional pop. In both years, he’s missed time to various minor injuries and yet to exceed 400 plate appearances, this seems like a part of his profile now.

Jimenez has been a skills-over-pure-tools player since he signed and thus considered a “high floor” prospect given the defensive value and contact ability. Now on the cusp of the big leagues, the value of that floor increases his value even as the likelihood of regular like upside has melted away. We view Jimenez as a likely utility player who might play himself into a lower end regular if everything comes together, with injuries being the biggest risk factor. It’s not the sexiest profile, but the probability counts for a lot.