2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 37-40

The Top 40 countdown of the Toronto Blue Jays system kicks off with four low-level lottery ticket prospects added to the farm system within the past couple years, none of whom can legally drink in the United States and one who couldn’t up here either.

2024: Full List and Index | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

40. Edward Duran, catcher, age 19/20 (DOB: 8/13/2004), grade: 35, 2023: unranked

First signed for $450,000 in January 2021 out of Venezuela, Duran came over from the Marlins as the decidedly inconspicuous kicker when the Jays acquired Anthony Bass and Zach Pop in August 2022. Coming off an unremarkable second season in the Dominican Summer League, he didn’t stick out last year as more than the deepest of sleepers.

Starting on the complex before moving to Dunedin for the last six weeks made for a limited sample of under 160 plate appearances, but Duran showed well with a .315/.422/.417 line. Walking more than he struck out indicates at least some idea and approach at the plate. It’s hard to make too much of the numbers since his entire career amounts to less than 400 PA, but even flashing offensive potential at a defensively-oriented position is intriguing.

Once upon a time, the Jays had two anonymous catchers who tore up the short season lower levels. Alejandro Kirk did it in Bluefield and we snuck him on the backend while Gabriel Moreno was left just beyond having done it a rung lower on the complex. We’ll see if Duran can follow in their footsteps (and the odds slant strongly against), but the hard -learned lesson is to not ignore promising traits at such a valuable position and Duran makes it on this backend gro

39. Nolan Perry, RHP, age 20 (DOB: 9/2/2003), grade: 35, 2023: unranked

Perry was selected in the 12th round of the 2022 Draft from high school in New Mexico, signing for $200,000 to forgo attending Texas Tech. At 6’2” and 195 pounds, with a low-fastball and the ability to spin a curveball, he had the prototypical building blocks for a pitching prospect and represented an interesting lottery ticket.

Not having made it into any games after signing, Perry’s debuted this past June (a few months shy of 20) in the complex league. The headline 7.28 ERA in 38.1 innings over nine outings was ugly, but the underlying 51 strikeouts (28%) against 18 free passes (10%) were quite good. 46 hits and four home runs allowed is not exorbitant either, so there there was seemingly some unfortunate luck or sequencing involved.

While age is less significant for contextualizing pitching prospects, it’s worth noting Perry was on the older side of the draft class and accordingly there’s probably some less room than otherwise for projection. If a viable third pitch doesn’t materialize, there’s obvious potential for a fastball/breaking ball bullpen role. The developmental arc could be similar to that of Josh Winckowski, a 15th round high school pick in 2016 who moved methodically up the rungs as a starter but never really figured out a third pitch but finally emerged in 2023 as a bullpen weapon.

38. Sam Shaw, 2B/OF, age 19 (DOB: 2/25/2005), grade: 35, 2023: high school

Shaw was selected in the 9th round of this summer’s draft out of high school in British Columbia, signing above slot for $282,500 that equivalent to 6th round slot. He had a brief debut on the complex, most notably walking 10 times in 40 plate appearances.

So there’s essentially no professional track record to go on, but Shaw gets credit for quick hands and a relatively advanced feel for hitting. It’s a hit over power expected profile, but the if the former clicks, the latter has a tendency to play up. Positionally, the Jays will try to keep him on the dirt at second, but the outfield may be more realistic. In any event, it’s a bat-driven profile.

Zooming out, the demographic profile outlines the promise. From 1987-2007, 40 hitters drafted and signed out of high school between the 5th and 10th rounds posted at least one full MLB season equivalent (six month active roster), or two per year. There were probably 500 total signees, so the odds are very long. But there’s a surprising number of regulars and even stars in that mix.

Beyond stars like Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday and Anthony Rizzo, so did the likes of Michael Brantley, Austin Jackson, Mike Sweeney and Jose Vidro. Frank Catalanotto would be another familiar to some Blue Jays fans, and even once upon a time Edwin Encarnacion fit the demographic. So once in a while real talent slips down this range, and that possibility drives the placement.

37. David Guzman, OF, age 18 (DOB: 2/7/2006), grade: 35, 2023: unranked

Guzman was signed out of Venezuela last January for $650,000 when the 2023 international signing period opened. That represented the second largest bonus in the signing class and a significant portion of what remained after ponying up for Enmanuel Bonilla.

One year in, it looks like a promising investment as Guzman hit .292/.403/.390 over 231 plate appearances in the DSL. Granted, DSL stats are of limited inferential value, but he showed a feel for hitting and an idea at the plate (27 walks against 25 strikeouts), which are positive markers.

The one thing Guzman didn’t do is hit for much of any power, and at a listed 5’7” and 160 pounds, he would seem to offer limited power projection. That’s a yellow flag given that he played mostly in right field and puts incredible pressure on the hit tool, though it’s not implausible that he could grow into more pop as he fills out. But in a thin system, the bonus pedigree and positive markers fit on the backend of this list.