2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 21-24

Moving into the middle of the Blue Jays’ Top 40, a couple of prospects just on outside last year move in to join a couple who didn’t quite take flight in 2023 and move down.

2024: Full List and Index | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

24. Hayden Juenger, RHP, age 23 (DOB: 8/9/2000), grade: 35+/40, 2023: 16th

Juenger was selected in the 6th round of the 2021 draft out of Missouri State, after a three years mostly as a reliever. He catapulted through the system, dominating out of Vancouver’s bullpen to close his draft year, starting 2022 in New Hampshire and reaching Triple-A barely a year after signing.

At 6’0” and 190 pounds, Juenger has a three pitch mix from a lower arm slot giving batters an unusual look and more carry on his fastball that reaches the mid-90s. At its best, he’ll break off a shorter, tight mid-80s slider that can be effective but is usually short of a swing-and-miss putaway. It’s actually his change-up with some run and dive that looks better and that he’s leaned on more heavily in Buffalo for whiffs but comes and goes.

Juenger had reasonable success working shorter 3-4 inning outings out of the rotation in Double-A, but has worked exclusively out of the bullpen with Buffalo. Three quality pitches give him the ability to profile beyond the typical modern short reliever, and he’s generally gone multi-innings. While the results were fine in the first go-around while peripherals backed up (3.31 ERA, 33 K in 33.2 innings), the reverse was true in 2023 as Juenger struck out 92 in 75.1 innings but with an ugly 6.33 ERA.

Simply put, Juenger gets hit much harder than a guy with his stuff should, yielding numerous absolute shots. He’s up to 17 HRs in 108 AAA innings (and 12 more in 56 at AA). Magnifying that is a frequent inability to throw enough strikes, resulting in 45 free passes last year. He still has a ways to go when it comes to harnessing his stuff consistently, which will ultimately dictate whether he can achieve major league success. At 23 there’s still time, but absent signs of progress perhaps the forward is, a la Trevor Richards, pare things back to two pitches and use him more as a classic short one inning reliever.

Compared to last year’s ranking, the distribution has been backed up in lieu of the troublesome ways he’s been exposed by higher level hitters, and the outside shot at starting that was baked in is removed. Fundamentally, the building blocks are still there for Juenger to be a successful middle reliever, with less likelihood of achieving the higher end outcomes the pure stuff could allow due to command contact management.

23. Gabriel Martinez, OF, age 21 (DOB: 7/24/2002), grade: 35+/40, 2023: 6th

Martinez was signed out of Venezuela in 2018, with a generally unremarkable DSL debutin 2019 notable for a solid approach at the plate (walking 9% against striking out 11%) but lacking production on batted balls. Post the pandemic layoff he started emerging by hitting .330/.442/.411 in 138 plate appearances mostly on the complex, before a real breakout in 2022 that vaulted him up the ranks into significant prospect status.

Across the two lower full season levels, Martinez hit just shy of .300 including playoffs, producing about 35% above average with solid plate discipline and newfound pop in the form of 36 extra base hits. The selling points were solid bat speed and a clean swing contact-oriented swing, and controlling the zone well for a teenager.

The underlying issue is that Martinez represented a very tough profile, as a corner outfielder without plus power projection or obvious physical projection. The hit tool is far and away the most important, but as his only carrying tool there’s incredible pressure on it. That manifested in 2023, as Gabby backed up .242/.300/.374 in 448 PA. The plate discipline was about the same, but the power regressed. A .267 BABIP may indicate some misfortunate, but even a significant bump would leave a pedestrian line.

Last year’s ranking embedded significant bust risk for the reasons discussed above, with with a significant upside tail given his propensity to hit and general trajectory. In hindsight, it was probably overly optimistic to begin with, but 2023 forces a significant paring back of those upside outcomes. The feel to hit still gives him more than a puncher’s chance at reaching the majors, just likely in the modest capacity.

22. Alex De Jesus, IF, age 22 (DOB: 3/2/2002), grade: 35+/40, 2023: just missed list

De Jesus came over with Mitch White at the 2022 trade deadline from the Dodgers, who signed him out of the Dominican in 2018 for $500,000. Being unfamiliar with him and not standing out in late season looks with Vancouver, he landed outside the Top 40 despite a good-of-not-overwhelming track record (noting “he’s the likeliest candidate to jump to a 40 type grade and the top half”).

Setting that brief stretch post-trade, De Jesus has shown a pretty consistent offensive track record in various full season leagues over the past three years. With the Dodgers he struck out about 30% of the time, with good pop and overall batted ball production albeit in the hitter-friendly Cal League. Moved up to high-A and more a more neutral environment, the power backed up with only a .400 BABIP holding up his line.

Hence, it was notably positive that De Jesus’s batted ball production held up nicely in 2023 against the more adverse conditions in the Northwest League as he popped 11 home runs and 35 total extra bases in 344 PA. He also continued to draw walks at a double digit clip, somewhat mitigating the strikeouts.

Overall, there are a fair bit on either side of the slate. He’s an infielder with decent pop and at least some idea and approach at the plate. The swing-and-miss and strikeouts are a big flag, and while young-to-youngish for the levels, the overall production has not been overwhelming at the level usually associated with future regulars. De Jesus feels more like a flawed bench-to-utility type, perhaps stretching to a poor man’s regular.

21. T.J. Brock, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 8/10/1998), grade: 35+/40, 2023: just missed list

Brock was selected in the 6th round of the 2022 draft as a senior from Ohio State, signing well underslot for $67,500. He didn’t pitch a lot at OSU, striking out a fair number of batters when he did but also struggling with control. The first name off last year’s list, while he’s rocketed through the system in the season-plus since, that fundamentally remains the case.

A pure short-relief profile, Brock has two major league calibre pitches in terms of raw stuff. His fastball is pure gas, a straight four seamer that sits in the mid-90s touching a tick or two higher into the upper 90s. When it’s working, his slider is hell, a wipeout weapon that piles up swing-and-misses though not infrequently in outings it doesn’t have the shape and gets hangy.

That’s the good, and why he posted a 1.77 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 20.1 innings as Vancouver’s closer before moving up. The issue is, to be frank, that he’s much more a thrower than a pitcher with well below average command and even basic control. Too often, he just can’t find the strike zone. And when he does he tends to to catch a lot of the plate, and hence the 6.68 ERA and seven bombs despite 56 strikeouts in 32.1 innings in New Hampshire.

Once in a while, things just click for guys like Brock, in which case he could absolutely profile as a high-leverage monster anchoring the back of the bullpen (think Jordan Romano). More likely, he is what he is, with a significant possibility the control is short of the minimum viability threshold where he’s a tantalizing but ultimately frustrating up/down guy (think Zach Pop).