2024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 13-16

The next segment of the Top 40 Blue Jays prospects features a college thumper with some questions to answer before three lower level starting pitcher prospects with different skillsets.

2024: Full List and Index | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40

2023: Full List and Index | 1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24 | 25-28 | 29-32 | 33-36 | 37-40
Beyond the Top 40: Just Missed | Top 5 Older | Pref Lists: Matt | Tom

16. Cade Doughty, IF, age 23 in 2024 (DOB: 3/26/2001), grade: 40, 2023: 12th

Doughty was selected 78th overall in the 2022 draft from LSU, where in 2021-22 he hit near .300 with decent on-base ability/plate discipline (9% BB, 15% K) and good pop (60 extra base hits in 465 AB, .254 ISO). It translated to his pro debut with a .272/.370/.495 line in 119 PA with Dunedin, though the strikeouts did tick up to 24%.

That profile was cemented in 2023, where Doughty spent the entire year in Vancouver and hit .264/.342/.459. 18 home runs and 19 doubles was very impressive power in the tough northwest League, but 126 strikeouts in 424 PA (30%) represents red-flag territory. He’s a very aggressive approach, and moving up to New Hampshire will really put that to the test in 2024.

Defensively, there’s still the question of finding a home. He’s split his time in the field between second and third so far, but the tools are stretched at either. He may eventually end up in the outfield, where the power profile fits if he can get to it enough. An offensive oriented utility profile is also possible. Essentially, the bat will drive and dictate how far and fast he goes.

With the spike in strikeout rate to quite concerning territory, the outlook is lower than last year. The big hit is to the upside tail, since historically the college ranks churns out a fair number of really good future regulars who slip though to the second half of the top 100 picks. Doughty is now trending towards lower end outcomes, and slots behind other offensively oriented bashers like Damiano Palmegiani in the system.

15. Dahian Santos, RHP, age 21 (DOB: 2/26/2003), grade: 40, 2023: 9th

Santos was signed for $150,000 out of Venezuela, part of a 2019 large international class of more than 40 signees in which the Jays spread their money around. Santos drew attention in 2021 by posting 53 strikeouts against 12 walks in 35.1 innings (4.58 ERA) at the complex. He followed that up an eye popping 120 strikeouts (39%) in 73.1 innings working 3-5 inning outings with Dunedin in 2022 before a late-season promotion to Vancouver with some hiccups.

2023 had good and bad elements. On the negative side, Santos missed the second half of the season after hitting the IL in early July and only made 12 starts. He really struggled with basic control as times, issuing 33 free passes in 48 innings. But it was more an issue of consistency rather persistent inability to throw strikes.

On the positive side, Santos posted mostly positive results, with a 3.44 ERA and a healthy 27% strikeout rate. The most positive development was that he used his change-up a lot more, whereas he was noted last year for a largely two pitch mix. Though not a dynamic weapon anywhere near his slider and the feel for it definitely varying across outings, it actually looked pretty good at times and more than viable.

But it’s the slider that piles up the strikeouts with devastating two-plane-movement. When he really snaps one off, it will almost seem to take a sharp left-hand turn halfway to the plate. His fastball velocity fluctuates a fair bit, generally in the 90-95 range.

Santos is on the small side at 5’11” and a listed 160 pounds, with the missed time underlining the injury risk and ability to shoulder a heavier workload. There’s some definite reliever traits, but the step forward in his change-up and ability to mix it in increases the confidence in at least having a shot. If he ends up in the bullpen, the fastball/slider profiles as strong 1-2 punch.

14. Kendry Rojas, LHP, age 21 (DOB: 11/26/2002), grade: 40, 2023: 27th

Rojas was signed by the Jays in October of 2020 out of Cuba for $215,000, spending the last three years in Dunedin split between the complex and low-A. In 2023, he repeated low-A, ramping up his workload to 87 innings with a 3.93 ERA and roughly a strikeout an inning, performance largely in line with the previous season. Notably, his fastball was a little firmer, to consistently in the low-90s (touching 94) from the 89-91 noted last year despite the increase in workload.

Listed at 6’2” and 190 pounds, Rojas pitches with a high arm slot and creates a lot of backspin on his fastball, giving it vertical ride to misses bats. In addition to a starter’s build, he has a starter’s arsenal, and with the vertical movement profile they can be hard to visually tell apart. In limited views, he used his mid-80s change-up liberally, flashing good, bat-missing fade but frequently lacking finish.

The final piece is his slider, which again in limited views has come across as more two distinct pitches. At the hard end in the mid-80s there’s less movement, almost more of a cutter, whereas in the lower-80s it has two plane break and looks like more of a weapon.

On the whole, it was a reasonably successful year given the increased innings foundation and slightly improved stuff. Some of that was already embedded as part of normal physical maturation, but actually achieving it modestly derisks the profile and accordingly the grade ticks up. While the failure risk is still high given a long remaining path, it’s more “high” than “extreme”, with the ceiling similar. The big move up the rankings however is more about the system than him.

13. Adam Macko, LHP, age 23 (DOB: 12/30/2000), grade: 40, 2023: 26th

Macko was selected by the Mariners in the 7th round of the 2019 draft out of Vauxhall Academy in Alberta (by way of his native Slovakia and Ireland), signing for $250,000. The Blue Jays acquired him as the kicker in the Teoscar Hernandez/Erik Swanson trade. After two injury shortened seasons in the Mariners system (17 starts, 71.2 innings, 4.27 ERA, 116/41 K/BB), Macko repeated high-A in 2024 but turned in a full season.

Making 20 starts, Macko turned in 86 innings to a 4.81 ERA with a solid if not as spectacular 106 strikeouts (against 48 free passes). The biggest issue was consistency, with major strike-throwing issues in some starts and a tendency to have hits bunched up while often he rolled through. The Jays added him to the 40-man roster at the end of the season, though he’ll start in New Hampshire and is on a 2025-2026 timeline if all goes well.

Listed at 6’0” and 170 pounds (though looking much more filled out), Macko has a full four pitch mix though none of them stand out as a true plus pitch/ plus weapon. His fastball has firmed up, much more frequently in the 93-95 range than previously though he’ll struggle at times to throw strikes. His most visually distinctive pitch is the curve with incredible depth, now thrown in the mid-to-high-70s. It can mix things up and steals some strikes, but we’ll see if it fools elite hitters. He’s increasingly used his slider, which comparatively almost present as more cutter like, and his change-up will flash plus at its best but comes and goes quality wise.

With Macko the whole is more than the sum of the parts, and the healthy 2023 alleviates concern/risk around injuries and ability to stay healthy. He’s trending towards a back-end starter, with strikethrowing and consistency a key point to watch going foward. There’s not a lot sepearting the three pitchers on this segment of the list, with the order more in the eye of the beholder depending on what one emphasizes.